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Rob Lee
Samuel P.N. CookKey takeaways
- 1Deep strike is no longer Russia’s game. Ukraine is now launching 1,000+ drones a night at operational depth, using cheap FP-2s, Hornets, and corps-level strike assets to hit logistics, air defense, and command posts far behind the front line.
- 2The brigade-to-corps reform is giving commanders real ownership of their battlespace. Corps now receive Hornets and deep-strike assets directly, while brigades retain autonomous drone capabilities — reducing redundancy and improving coordination.
- 3A cheap-drone revolution is underway: $4,000 recon drones paired with Mavic and Starlink are transforming battlefield awareness. Counter-Shahed interceptors remain a problem, but the economics increasingly favor Ukraine’s scalable approach.
- 4UGVs are indispensable but critically short — Ukraine has only about 20% of what it needs. Gas-powered casevac “mules,” AI-guided camera turrets, and Starlink-connected platforms are proving their value, but production can’t keep pace with demand.
- 5Conditions are forming for Ukrainian armor assaults to return. Russian defensive lines are thin, middle-strike operations are degrading their logistics, and drones now account for 80%+ of casualties — creating openings that didn’t exist a year ago.
Key Quotes
“For a long time, Ukraine knew where Russian targets were. They didn’t have the capacity to hit them. But now they do. And it’s really changed the dynamic of the fighting this year.”
Rob Lee
“With these cheap drones — they are really cheap — you can send them up even without ISR. Just knowing there will be targets. And if there’s no target, it’s okay. It was a $4,000 drone.”
Rob Lee
“I would not be surprised if we see some successful Ukrainian armor assaults this year. The conditions for reestablishing maneuver are going to come back.”
Rob Lee
“The deep strike game — it’s no longer dominated by Russia. Ukraine is also hitting things at depth. And the war is increasingly costly for Russia.”
Rob Lee