Ukraine Military History Institute
In Episode 17 of the podcast, "The Next Month Decides the Winter": Rob Lee & Francis Farrell Back From the Front, the conversation turns to one of the most enduring strategic realities of the war: Russia only respects strength. In a detailed segment, defense analyst Rob Lee lays out why Moscow's escalation campaign has largely failed, why negotiations are unlikely to end the fighting soon, and why the only viable path forward is a long-term Western commitment designed to convince Vladimir Putin that Ukraine, and NATO, can outlast Russia.
Russia's Escalation Campaign Has Not Achieved Its Goals
One of the clearest takeaways from the discussion is that Russia's efforts to fracture Western support have simply not worked. NATO countries continue to back Ukraine, and the anticipated European breakdown, the moment when member states might conclude the risks were too high and pull back, never materialized.
"Whatever the purpose of Russia's campaign, it hasn't achieved its results," Lee notes. There has been no fracture, no collective retreat, and no widespread panic that Russia had raised the stakes too far.
Moscow has experimented with covert methods, sabotage aimed at defense factories, and recruiting operatives, including Ukrainians living in Europe, through Telegram with financial incentives. Yet these efforts have produced limited strategic effect. European defense production has not been meaningfully disrupted, and by exposing its methods, Russia has effectively handed European governments a roadmap for countering them.
The Escalation Risk Has Existed for Four and a Half Years
Escalation fears have shadowed this war since the beginning. NATO aid has killed Russian soldiers. Western intelligence has enabled strikes deep inside Russia. As Lee points out, if you rewind to 2022, the idea that U.S. intelligence would help Ukraine strike refineries or targets near Moscow would have been viewed as extraordinarily escalatory.
He highlights a striking example: in 2022 and 2023, Elon Musk famously warned that striking Crimea, territory Russia treats as its own, could trigger escalation. Today, Starlink is routinely used to strike targets in Crimea, and World War III has not followed.
"Clearly that has not led to World War III," Lee observes. "It has posed challenges for Russia, but obviously it seems Elon is also a little more comfortable with risk than he was maybe before."
The lesson is not that risk is imaginary, it remains real and must be managed, but that many red lines proved far more flexible than initially feared.
Dialogue Is Fine, But Support Must Continue
Lee makes an important distinction: talking to Moscow is not the same as capitulating to it. He supports dialogue, including CIA Director Ratcliffe traveling to Moscow, and European officials engaging Russian counterparts. Such conversations can prevent dangerous misperceptions from spiraling into escalation.
But dialogue must be paired with clarity. The message to Russia has to be unambiguous: support for Ukraine will continue, and Russia's conduct in this war is unacceptable.
"It's important to make it clear to Russia that support to Ukraine will continue," Lee emphasizes, "and that ultimately what Russia's doing is considered unacceptable and that we shouldn't accept this kind of war."
NATO Must Learn the Lessons of This War
A recurring frustration for Lee is that NATO militaries have been slow to absorb the lessons of the fighting in Ukraine. The character of modern warfare has changed dramatically, and the way Russia would fight NATO has evolved alongside it.
"Some NATO militaries don't recognize how much the character of the fighting has changed," he warns, arguing that alliance forces must update what they are preparing for. Failing to adapt leaves Western militaries planning for a war that no longer exists.
This is not merely an academic concern. Understanding these lessons is directly tied to the security of NATO members themselves, a point Lee stresses is still recognized across most of the alliance, even if action lags behind understanding.
Putin's Bubble and the Danger of Miscalculation
As Francis Farrell noted earlier in the episode, Putin has effectively run Russia for 27 years. That degree of one-man decision-making, over such a long period, creates structural risks. It is unclear where all of Putin's information comes from, whether it is accurate, or how much his own biases distort his understanding of reality.
"He lives in a bubble," Lee says. "That creates all sorts of issues. It will be an enduring problem we have to manage."
This reality feeds directly into the question of escalation. If Russia begins to face serious battlefield challenges, stalling advances and rising costs, will Putin, isolated and possibly misinformed, attempt to escalate in a new direction?
Why the "Stalemate" Narrative Misreads Putin
One of Lee's sharpest critiques targets the popular narrative that Ratcliffe's Moscow trip came in response to a battlefield stalemate. From Putin's perspective, Lee argues, the war is anything but stalled.
Capturing the rest of Donetsk region remains Russia's minimum tactical and operational goal, and Russian forces are currently advancing through key cities. Even if the maps are inflated and Putin holds an exaggerated view of progress, the reality is that Russia is moving toward its objectives.
"The idea that the war is completely stalemated, and that's why the talks began, I think that's wrong," Lee says. Any hope that Russia is ready to make a deal, and simply needs to be shown some documents, he describes as naive.
The War Won't End Soon, Plan for the Long Haul
With Kushner and Witkoff shuttling between Moscow and Kyiv, Lee is clear-eyed about expectations: negotiations are unlikely to produce significant results or end the war in the near future. Russia holds some advantages heading into winter, and Putin is probably more optimistic now than he was a few months ago.
The strategic conclusion is unavoidable. Support for Ukraine must be long-term, and Ukraine's own strategy must be built for endurance.
"How can we make sure we can outlast Russia in this war?" Lee asks. The goal is to convince Putin that Ukraine can outlast Russia, that NATO support will outlast the war itself, and that expanding the conflict for another six months or a year will not deliver victory.
Ultimately, the message circles back to the segment's core theme: Russia only respects strength. Convincing Putin that ending the war sooner is better for him than continuing it, that is the outcome sustained Western resolve is meant to produce.
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For the full conversation, listen to Episode 17, "The Next Month Decides the Winter": Rob Lee & Francis Farrell Back From the Front.